TRUTH SHEET

Cats, Birds, and Extinction in Hawaiʻi: What the Science Actually Shows

(Based solely on peer-reviewed research and established extinction methodology)


**Author: Greg "Pu'uwai Aloha" Baker, MBA CCM
** January 26, 2026
**Copyright 2026 - All Rights Reserved
**Hawaii Animal Advocacy Org

 

Key Scientific Findings

1. No bird species has been shown to go extinct solely because of cats.

There is no peer-reviewed scientific evidence, in Hawaiʻi or anywhere else, demonstrating that cats were the sole, direct, and sufficient cause of any bird extinction.

All documented bird extinctions are understood in the scientific literature as multi-causal events, involving combinations of:

  • Habitat destruction and fragmentation
  • Human hunting and exploitation
  • Introduced predators (especially rats and mongoose)
  • Introduced disease (notably avian malaria in Hawaiʻi)
  • Climate and ecosystem disruption

In peer-reviewed extinction studies, cats are described—when present at all—as one contributing factor among many, never as the exclusive cause.


2. Science cannot determine that removing cats would have prevented any extinction.

No study provides the information required to answer the counterfactual question:

“If cats had been completely removed, would the bird species have survived?”

Extinction science is retrospective, not experimental. For extinct species, there are:

  • No controlled predator-removal experiments
  • No isolation of cats from other extinction drivers
  • No evidence establishing cats as a necessary or sufficient cause

Claims that killing cats would have “saved” extinct birds are assertions, not scientific conclusions.


3. Killing cats does not address Hawaiʻi’s primary drivers of bird extinction and decline.

Peer-reviewed research consistently identifies the strongest and most persistent threats to Hawaiʻi’s native birds as:

  • Habitat loss and fragmentation, particularly lowland forest conversion
  • Mosquito-borne avian malaria and avian pox, whose impacts have expanded with climate change
  • Rats (Rattus rattus, R. norvegicus, R. exulans), the primary predators of eggs and nestlings for many native birds
  • The small Indian mongoose (Urva auropunctata), a major predator of ground-nesting birds, eggs, and chicks

Removing cats does not restore habitat, eliminate disease, or control rat or mongoose predation — the dominant, well-documented drivers of native bird loss in Hawaiʻi.


4. Managed, sterilized cat populations reduce long-term impacts.

Peer-reviewed population studies show that:

  • Sterilization stabilizes and reduces free-roaming cat populations over time
  • Managed colonies reduce roaming, fighting, and hunting behavior
  • Lethal removal often results in population rebound, as new animals move into vacated areas

From a population-ecology perspective, management and sterilization are more effective long-term tools than eradication efforts in inhabited landscapes.

5. Cats have not been identified as the primary predator driving extinction or endangerment of Hawaiʻi’s native birds.

In peer-reviewed Hawaiʻi conservation literature, cats are not identified as the primary predator or dominant extinction driver for any native bird species, whether extinct or currently listed as endangered or threatened.

Instead, Hawaiʻi-specific studies consistently attribute extinction risk and ongoing decline primarily to:

  • Habitat loss and fragmentation

  • Mosquito-borne avian malaria and pox

  • Rats (Rattus spp.), the leading nest predators

  • The small Indian mongoose (Urva auropunctata), a major predator of ground-nesting birds

While cats may be discussed as one contributing pressure in certain contexts, the scientific literature does not support claims that cats are the primary predator responsible for extinction or endangerment of Hawaiʻi’s native birds.



What the Science Does Not Support

  • That cats are “the reason” birds are going extinct in Hawaiʻi
  • That cats are the primary extinction driver compared to habitat loss, disease, rats, or mongoose
  • That killing cats would have prevented documented extinctions
  • That lethal control is required for effective conservation

These claims do not appear in peer-reviewed extinction literature.


Important Hawaiʻi Context: The Mongoose

The small Indian mongoose (Urva auropunctata) was intentionally introduced to Hawaiʻi in the late 1800s to control rats in sugarcane fields. Instead, it became a highly efficient predator of ground-nesting native birds, eggs, and chicks.

Mongooses are:

  • Diurnal, overlapping directly with nesting activity
  • Widely documented in Hawaiʻi-specific studies as significant avian predators

Any conservation narrative that omits mongoose while focusing primarily on cats is scientifically incomplete and misleading.

 


Core Scientific Principles

Contribution does not equal causation.
Association does not equal necessity.
Science requires evidence, not repetition.

 


Aloha ʻĀina Perspective

Aloha ʻāina is about kuleana, balance, and care — not scapegoating one species to avoid confronting the full scope of human-driven ecological harm.

Protecting Hawaiʻi’s birds requires:

  • Honesty about causes
  • Humility about what science can and cannot say
  • Solutions grounded in stewardship, not fear


Bottom Line

There is no scientific basis for claiming that cats are the reason birds in Hawaiʻi are going extinct.

Extinctions are multi-causal, human-driven events, and focusing on cats alone distracts from the most effective and humane conservation solutions.

(Prepared using peer-reviewed research in avian ecology, extinction science, and Hawaiʻi-specific conservation literature.)




Selected Peer-Reviewed References

(Hawaiʻi Bird Decline, Extinction Causation, and Predation)

Extinction methodology & multi-causal attribution

  • Doherty, T. S., et al. (2016). Invasive predators and global biodiversity loss. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(40), 11261–11265.
  • Nogales, M., et al. (2013). Feral cats and biodiversity conservation: The urgent prioritization of island management. BioScience, 63(10), 804–810.
  • Van Riper, C. III & Scott, J. M. (2001). Limiting factors affecting Hawaiian native birds. Studies in Avian Biology, No. 22, 221–233.

Habitat loss & pre-/post-human impacts

  • Burney, D. A., et al. (2001). Fossil evidence for a diverse biota from Kauaʻi and its transformation since human arrival. Ecological Monographs, 71(4), 615–641.
  • Atkinson, I. A. E. (1977). A reassessment of factors, particularly Rattus rattus, that influenced extinction of endemic forest birds in Hawaiʻi. Pacific Science, 31(2), 109–133.

Disease (avian malaria & climate interaction)

  • Van Riper, C. III, et al. (1986). The epizootiology and ecological significance of malaria in Hawaiian land birds. Ecological Monographs, 56(4), 327–344.
  • Atkinson, C. T. & LaPointe, D. A. (2009). Introduced avian diseases, climate change, and the future of Hawaiian honeycreepers. Journal of Avian Medicine and Surgery, 23(1), 53–63.

Rats as primary nest predators

  • VanderWerf, E. A. & Smith, D. G. (2002). Effects of alien rodent control on demography of Hawaiian forest birds. Pacific Conservation Biology, 8(2), 73–81.
  • Lindsey, G. D., et al. (2009). Rat predation on Hawaiian forest birds: Evidence from nest success studies. Biological Conservation, 142(9), 2018–2027.

Mongoose impacts in Hawaiʻi

  • Hays, W. S. T. & Conant, S. (2007). Biology and impacts of the small Indian mongoose in Hawaiʻi. Pacific Science, 61(1), 3–16.
  • Banko, P. C., et al. (2013). Threats from invasive predators to Hawaiian birds. Studies in Avian Biology, No. 45.

Cat management & population dynamics (non-advocacy)

  • Longcore, T., et al. (2009). Critical assessment of claims regarding management of feral cats by Trap-Neuter-Return. Conservation Biology, 23(4), 887–894.
  • Levy, J. K., et al. (2014). Effect of high-impact targeted sterilization on free-roaming cat populations. Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association, 245(5), 536–549.


Key methodological note

None of the above studies demonstrate:

  • Cats as the sole cause of any bird extinction
  • That removing cats alone would have prevented extinction
  • Single-driver causation in Hawaiʻi bird losses

All support multi-causal, human-driven extinction frameworks.




Common Claims vs. What the Peer-Reviewed Science Actually Says


Claim 1.

“Cats are the reason birds are going extinct in Hawaiʻi.”

How studies are often cited:
General references to invasive predators or island extinctions.

What the cited science actually says:
No peer-reviewed study identifies cats as the sole or primary cause of any Hawaiian bird extinction. All extinction analyses describe multi-causal processes, including habitat loss, disease, rats, mongoose, and human exploitation.

Key sources:
Van Riper & Scott (2001); Burney et al. (2001); Doherty et al. (2016)


Claim 2.

“Cats caused the extinction of X bird species.”

How studies are often cited:
Numbers such as “33” or “40” species attributed to cats.

What the cited science actually says:
These numbers refer to extinctions where cats were one contributing factor, not the sole cause. The studies explicitly use language such as “contributed to” or “implicated alongside other pressures.”

No paper claims cats were necessary and sufficient for extinction.

Key sources:
Nogales et al. (2013); Doherty et al. (2016)


Claim 3.

“If cats had been removed, these birds would not have gone extinct.”

How studies are often cited:
Implied causation from presence of cats.

What the cited science actually says:
No study answers this counterfactual question. Extinction science is retrospective, not experimental. There are no controlled removals, no isolation of cats from other drivers, and no proof that cats were a decisive variable.

Statements about what “would have happened” are speculation, not science.

Key sources:
Nogales et al. (2013); Doherty et al. (2016)


Claim 4.

“Cats are the primary predator threatening Hawaiian birds.”

How studies are often cited:
Broad references to “introduced predators.”

What the cited science actually says:
Hawaiʻi-specific literature consistently identifies:

  • Rats (Rattus spp.) as primary nest predators
  • Small Indian mongoose (Urva auropunctata) as a major predator of ground-nesting birds

Cats are not identified as the dominant predator in most Hawaiian bird studies.

Key sources:
Atkinson (1977); VanderWerf & Smith (2002); Hays & Conant (2007)


Claim 5.

“Lethal control of cats is necessary for bird conservation.”

How studies are often cited:
Selective references to predator removal success.

What the cited science actually says:
Population ecology shows lethal removal in inhabited landscapes often leads to rebound effects and immigration. Peer-reviewed studies demonstrate that sterilization stabilizes and reduces populations long-term, while lethal control alone does not address habitat loss or disease.

Key sources:
Longcore et al. (2009); Levy et al. (2014)


Claim 6.

“Questioning cat-focused narratives is anti-science or anti-bird.”

How studies are often cited:
Appeals to scientific authority without methodological discussion.

What the cited science actually says:
Scientific rigor requires:

  • Accurate attribution
  • Clear distinction between contribution and causation
  • Acknowledgment of uncertainty

None of the peer-reviewed literature frames skepticism as anti-conservation. Oversimplification is not scientific consensus.

Key sources:
Van Riper & Scott (2001); Doherty et al. (2016)


Core Methodological Clarification

  • Presence does not equal causation.
  • Contribution does not equal necessity.
  • Science does not support single-cause extinction narratives.


Why This Matters for Policy

Policies based on mischaracterized science:

  • Risk ineffective conservation outcomes
  • Normalize unnecessary cruelty
  • Distract from Hawaiʻi’s most critical bird threats: habitat loss, disease, rats, and mongoose

Evidence-based policy requires accurate reading of the literature, not repetition of simplified claims.

*** How to Use This Table

  • Legislators: include as an appendix to testimony
  • Media: use to fact-check common talking points
  • Agencies: apply as a citation integrity check
  • Courts: demonstrates misrepresentation vs. actual findings

 

About The Author

Greg Puʻuwai Aloha Baker holds an MBA and a College Certificate in Community Cat Management from the University of the Pacific, a program focused on effective, humane methods to stabilize and reduce free-roaming cat populations. The program was taught by Stacey LeBaron, a nationally recognized expert with over 30 years of experience in community cat management, shelter operations, and TNR (Trap-Neuter-Return). LeBaron is best known for her leadership in the groundbreaking Newburyport, Massachusetts TNR project that successfully reduced a waterfront colony of 300 cats to zero by 2009, and for founding CommunityCatsPodcast.com.

Greg has been deeply involved in cat rescue and advocacy for more than five years, co-managing multiple community cat colonies in Pāhoa on the Big Island of Hawaiʻi as well as creating a mini-cat sanctuary for hard to adopt Community Cats. Through consistent TNR work, he has personally trapped, neutered, and returned over 70 cats. He also volunteers regularly at PetFix Spay/Neuter MASH events, providing critical support for both cats and dogs.

Greg’s commitment to humane cat management extends to policy advocacy. He founded Hawaiʻi Animal Advocacy Organization and led community efforts opposing the Hawaiʻi County Cat Feeding Ban (Bill 51), gathering over 7,500 petition signatures to defend community-based, science-driven animal welfare practices.

 

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